What it shows
True Market Mean is the average purchase price of active investors. The app defines it as Investor Cap divided by Active Supply, from the Cointime Economics framework. Lost coins and coins that have been dormant for years do not pull this average down. Realized Price includes those coins, so it can sit lower. AVIV equals the BTC price divided by True Market Mean. A value above 1.0 means the price is above the average cost of active investors. The chart shows the price, the mean and the AVIV ratio. A daily low-high band sits behind the price line.
- True Market Mean line
- AVIV ratio panel
- Daily low-high band
How to read it
Compare the price with the True Market Mean line in the upper panel. Price above the line means active investors are, on average, in profit. Price below it means they are at a loss. The lower panel shows AVIV, colored green at or above 1.0 and red below 1.0. The gray band shows the daily low and high, so you can see when intraday price touched the line while the close stayed away. A touch of the line is not a forecast.
- Compare the price line with the True Market Mean line.
- Read the AVIV ratio and note whether it is above 1.0.
- Use the log scale and a long range to compare cycles.
What to keep in mind
The mean depends on how the framework defines active supply. Other sources may use other definitions and give other values. The price line uses the daily close. The close can hide intraday moves, so the page adds a daily low-high band. The ratio is an average view. It does not show how profit is spread across holders. Use it as context.
A missing value is not zero. Check the source and time under each data block before you compare numbers.
Questions
What is the True Market Mean?
It is the average purchase price of active Bitcoin investors. The app calculates it as Investor Cap divided by Active Supply. Lost and long-dormant coins are left out, so the mean reflects coins that take part in the market.
What is AVIV?
AVIV is the BTC price divided by the True Market Mean. A value above 1.0 means the price is above the average cost of active investors. A value below 1.0 means it is below. The page colors the ratio green above 1.0 and red below.
How does True Market Mean differ from Realized Price?
Realized Price averages the last-move price of all coins, including lost and dormant ones. True Market Mean averages only the coins of active investors. Because lost coins are removed, the two lines usually have different levels.